MADRID, July 20 (EUROPA PRESS) –
Global electricity demand growth will slow significantly in 2022, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a 2.4% increase in consumption compared to the 6% increase seen in 2021 from the slowdown in demand, reflecting the impact of economics and high energy prices .
Global electricity demand is expected to grow 2.4% in 2022, after last year’s 6% increase, which is in line with the average growth rate in the five years before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the agency a report.
The IEA highlights the impact on demand related to inflation and sanitation measures in China, which weighed on industrial production and increased tensions in supply chains, as industry is responsible for more than 40% of final electricity demand, hence the slowdown The economic one Activity has led to a drop in consumption, with the exception of India, where unusually high temperatures in the second quarter of 2022 pushed electricity demand to record levels.
Likewise, the agency expects similar growth rates in global electricity demand in 2023 as projected for 2022, consistent with a similar global economic growth rate, although it warns of the existence of major uncertainties related to interrelated factors such as economic growth, the volatility of high fossil fuel prices and the ongoing health measures related to Covid-19.
According to IEA regional forecasts, Asia-Pacific electricity demand growth will be around 3.4% in 2022, down more than a percentage point year-to-date, while 2023 is expected to see demand growth close to 4%, offsetting some of the slowdown in 2022.
In the case of China, the absolute fastest growing country from 2016 to 2021, the demand in the first five months of 2022 showed a growth of only 0.5% compared to the same period in 2021, while in India the on The second fastest growing country has revised its forecast for 2022 upwards to 7% from 6% in recent years.
In the Americas, IEA forecasts suggest that demand growth will moderate to almost 2% in 2022, after exceptional growth of around 2.4% in 2021, and fall below 1% in 2023. These forecasts are slightly higher for 2022 and slightly lower for 2023 than last January, mainly due to the rapid economic recovery in the United States, where he expects consumption growth of 2% in 2022, while he previously expected a stalemate.
For Europe, the agency expects demand to rise below 1%, less than half of what was expected earlier in the year, and warns a potential shortage of fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, and a wider slowdown in economic growth could dampen demand growth further.
“For 2023, the outlook is quite uncertain,” the IEA adds, noting that with persistently tight energy markets and no economic growth, power demand growth could remain at levels similar to 2022.
“The world is in the midst of the first truly global energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the energy sector is one of the hardest hit,” said Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at the IEA. “This is particularly evident in Europe, which is experiencing serious turmoil in the energy market,” he added.
On the other hand, the report warns that coal is replacing natural gas for power generation in markets with available coal capacity, particularly in those markets, due to high gas prices and supply shortages. European countries are trying to end their dependence on Russia for gas imports.
To secure energy supplies after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some European countries have postponed plans to phase out coal and lifted previously imposed restrictions on the fuel.
“Global use of coal for power generation is expected to increase modestly in 2022” as growth in Europe is offset by declines in China and the United States on strong growth in renewables and only modest increases in energy use States, due to supply and capacity limitations of coal-fired power plants.
Likewise, the IEA expects gas-fired power generation to fall by 2.6% as declines in Europe and South America outpace growth in North America and the Middle East.
Renewable energy is projected to be the fastest growing source of electricity in 2022, with production growing by more than 10% in 2022.
“This is the highest reading ever and takes renewable energy to 30% of the supply mix,” said the agency, which expects global renewable energy growth to exceed 8% by 2023 and exceed additional electricity demand.