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S&P revises Spain’s rating, will there be changes due to the war?

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S&P revises Spain’s rating, will there be changes due to the war?

The S&P Global Ratings agency reviews on this day the credit rating of Spanish fixed income, with the solvency analysis of our country’s debt. A note that he will not only make today, but will re-evaluate the health of our rating and its possible changes on September 16.

So far Standard & Poor’s maintains Spain’s rating at “A” with a negative outlook. Last year this note will be presented without changes, Once the agency indicated that we would not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022, once the expectation of the coronavirus improved and with a sword of Damocles hanging over it for two reasons: It indicated that it would lower its rating on Spain if the Government did not implement the necessary changes in the Labor Reform OR if the state debt increased above forecasts.

now, the situation has changed radically, because we no longer only have the pandemic, inflation and even the change in bias of the central banks and the crowning of the economy as risks. Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the whole picture and uncertainty focuses on how things will turn out, and how they will evolve in the coming months.

From the moment of the S&P they have just lowered the growth expectation for this year, although it remains at higher levels than those of most organizations. Clowers GDP growth expectation to 6.2% from its previous 7%during the vicissitudes of war. In the case of inflation, it places the forecast at 5.2% and raises it from the previous 3.2%.

A larger square with respect to the growth of the Spanish economy, by 2023 it lowers its estimates by two tenths to 4.2% and in 2024 it estimates that the Spanish GDP will be placed at 2.6% with two tenths higher compared to its previous estimates.

Credit ratings to Spain from rating agencies

Credit ratings to Spain from rating agencies

The two agencies that have already evaluated Spain this year are moody’s and DBRS. In the case of the first, which did so in January, it left its note unchanged, which, however, is among the lowest of the large international firms: “Baa1” for long-term debt, with a stable outlook.

The agency estimates that Spain presents a profile of balanced growth and with an adequate external surplus, but with great challenges on taxation in the face of political fragmentation. And advertising: there will be a downward revision if the Next Generation EU funds are not implemented correctly.

In the case of the Canadian DBRS also did not establish changes with an “A” rating with a stable outlook, a high approval for our long debt as in the case of S&P. With a Spanish economy that is large and diversified, belonging to the euro and with a competitive export sector. Its high public debt ratio is one of the main imbalances which stands out. His review will be next September 2.

To close the circleafter S&P only Fitch would remain, which maintains Spain with an “A-” rating with a stable outlook, with his analysis that we will know on June 10 in the first instance and on December 2 in the second. In the last month of last year he estimated that Spain was recovering strongly. Among the risks to lower the rating, the tensions in Catalonia or the lack of a fiscal strategy to lower the debt in the medium term.

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