MADRID, August 12 (EUROPA PRESS) –
Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 4% between April and June compared to the second quarter of 2021, reflecting the impact of the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions against the country, according to the preliminary estimate by Russia’s statistical office, Rosstat.
Russia’s second-quarter GDP contraction, while less sharp than projected by various international organizations, is the largest since the second quarter of 2020 and contrasts with the 3.5% yoy growth in the first three months of 202.
The Bank of Russia already expressed confidence last July that the GDP contraction in 2022 will be less severe than initially feared, limiting it to a range between 4% and 6%, while predicting between 4% and 4% for 2023 % and 1% will fluctuate Return to growth in 2024 with an estimated expansion between 1.5% and 2.5%.
In this sense, the deputy governor of the entity, Alexey Zabotkin, pointed out this Friday that the bottom of the GDP decline will be passed “in the first six months of 2023”, after which the Russian economy will move in the direction of a new one long-term balance.
In its latest macroeconomic projections, published at the end of July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its forecast for Russia in 2022, when it expects GDP to fall by 6%, but this is less severe than the fall of 2022 projected in April 8.5% exacerbated the decline to 3.5% in 2023, compared to the 2.3% decline previously forecast.
Russia’s composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), released in early August and used as a leading indicator of economic activity, showed an acceleration in private activity, hitting 52.2 points in July from 50.4 the previous month, its best reading in a year.