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Oil: could it reach $200?

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Oil: could it reach $200?

Oil prices Br Sp ADR have given us a significant respite of 6.3% in the last week. Without a doubt, this is good news for the Western powers, consumers of crude oil, who see the exponential rise in its cost, without reaching the 140 dollars per barrel that they touched last March 7, marking a real debacle in the market, for the time being. does not occur, although it continues trading on the verge of 110 dollars.

And it can even go much further if the market were stressed. And it is that, although the financial markets are already beginning to anticipate in some way if not the end, yes a certain relief in the conflict in Ukraine, the experts in the sector who have spoken in recent days at an event in Lausanne organized by the Financial Times , even inclusive, the price of the barrel is 200 dollars.

The owner of one of the large global hedge funds that bears his name, specialized in energy, Pierre Andurand points out that the Russian supply may be lost forever, and that normality will not be recovered in a few months, for which oil could reach 250 dollars this year.

Also of this opinion is Doug King, the president of the RCMA Group, who emphasizes that the current situation is not transitory, and that it could occur a crude supply shock that would shoot the price up to 200 and 250 dollars per barrel.

In its stock chart we see that the tension is decreasing at the moment, with drops in the last five sessions of 6.3% and that they place the monthly advance at 11.5%. Earnings already very pronounced in the quarterly scope of 39.1% While in the year the oil advance is consecrated in 40.2%.

Oil annual value quote

Oil annual value quote

By Standard Chartered highlights Alok Sinha its global oil director who the current problem of the market will not be temporary, yesbut it will turn into a long-term problem, so alternative growth to supply will need to be found. For the moment, the United States has offered relief to the European Union, in its idea of ​​changing the consumer bias towards Russia.

Its about agreement closed between Biden and Von der Leyen in Brusselswith the visit of the President of the United States in Europe, with the supply of 15,000 million cubic meters of gas this year to reduce Russia’s dependence on Germany and the Eastern European Community countries. In addition, the EU will purchase 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas annually until 2030.

inclusive the most optimistic experts do not see a drop in crude oil below 100 dollars, level that from BMO considering that it has a permanence character. And something more important. The pattern found in State Street Global Advisors between stocks and oil, with an inverse connection that we have seen in the financial markets in recent weeks.

For example, last week on Wall Street, energy was the sector that had the best performance in the market with increases of 7% and advances of 9% for the West Texas barrel and 8% for Brent in international commodity markets, despite yesterday’s falls

All this with the threat of a possible European embargo on Russian oil is still up in the air and that worries OPEC a lot. From the card considering that a measure of this type would harm consumers and discourage its establishment due to the negative effects it will have for the market and especially for the more than upward evolution that would be transferred to the price of crude oil.

Meanwhile, from the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin has demanded payment in rubles on the gas markets for countries he considers hostilealthough Germany and its chancellor Scholz pointed out that this clause does not appear in the contracts signed with Russia, so they are not worried.

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