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Do the experts refute the US strategy after the Ukraine war? (1)

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Seven leading foreign policy analysts have offered their views on the change the Russo-Ukrainian war will bring to the foreign policy and national security of the United States and Europe.

The war was a wake-up call for Europeans who believed that US anti-invasion rules, international institutions, economic interdependence, and security guarantees made a major war on their continent impossible.

And the seven analysts wrote, in an analysis for “Foreign Policy” magazine, that the Russian war against Ukraine has entered its second month, and calling it a “historic transformation” seems “a clichéd and repetitive idea”, since It is the first comprehensive war of aggression in Europe since 1945.

They added that China is drawing closer to troubled Russia, while the United States and its allies were not as united decades ago as they are now, and even Germany has realized the magnitude of its need to rearm.

The trauma of the war led the Biden administration to scramble to rewrite its national security plan. The US Department of Defense’s National Defense Strategy, which outlines the US approach to long-term security challenges, was due to be released in February but will not be released until further notice.

When the revised version of Washington’s most important security document is published, it will have to reflect the new realities on the ground: Russian aggression has fundamentally changed European security in ways that remain unclear as the war progresses; Especially because of the uncertainty about how close Beijing and Moscow have become due to the conflict. Furthermore, the sudden response from Western countries gave foreign policy planners a greater set of tools to draw on when planning for future challenges.

How will America’s great strategic war, which a month ago seemed almost entirely focused on China and the Indo-Pacific, change?

Deliver European security to the Europeans
For more than a century, America’s grand strategy has focused on helping maintain a favorable balance of power in Europe and East Asia and, to a lesser extent, in the Persian Gulf, said Stephen M. Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University. The rise of China has presented the biggest challenge to America’s ability to maintain these positive power arrangements. Russia’s “brutal” invasion of Ukraine does not change this fact. Looking ahead, the Biden administration must not allow the dire events in Europe to distract it from the larger task of rebuilding power at home and balancing Chinese power abroad.

He added: “The war was a wake-up call to Europeans who believed that US anti-invasion rules, international institutions, economic interdependence and security guarantees made a major war on their continent impossible.”

He stressed that Europe can deal with the future Russian threat on its own. Now that Russia’s true capabilities are revealed, confidence in Europe’s ability to defend itself must grow even higher.

He viewed the war in Ukraine as an ideal time to move toward a new division of labor between the United States and its European allies, with Washington devoting its attention to Asia and its European partners assuming primary responsibility for its defense. The United States should abandon its longstanding opposition to European strategic independence and actively help its partners modernize their forces. NATO’s next commander-in-chief should be a European general, and US leaders should see his role in NATO not as responders but as defenders of last resort.

The writer emphasized that the transfer of responsibility for security from Europe to Europeans must be gradual, noting that the situation in Ukraine remains unresolved and that European defense capabilities cannot be restored overnight, but In the long term, the United States and NATO should seek The European Union is also working to build a European security system that does not exclude Russia, to promote stability in Europe and distance Moscow from its growing reliance on China. This development should await the presence of a new leadership in Moscow, but it should be a long-term goal.

After 9/11, the United States was embroiled in a costly war on terror and a misguided effort to transform the Greater Middle East. The Biden administration should not make a similar mistake today. Ukraine cannot be ignored, but that does not justify deeper American engagement with Europe once the current crisis is resolved. China remains the only competitor among peers, and it must remain a top US strategic priority.

Economic warfare changed the strategic toolkit forever
Shannon O’Neill, vice president of the Council on Foreign Relations, deputy director of studies and senior fellow at the council, said unprecedented economic and financial sanctions against Russia and conventional military aid to Ukraine have changed the US approach. of financial oppression and economic devastation.
She believed that this could change the US foreign policy toolkit forever, with profound consequences for Washington’s vision, even if she considered that the previous use of sanctions did not lead to regime change or the end of the war. wars.

But at the same time, he considered that if the United States wins – and the economic battle forces Putin to withdraw his army or even lose power – then surely the United States will formulate a grand strategy and define the nature of the alliances and hierarchies of great powers for much of the 21st century.

It will reassert American hegemony in new ways, deter other aggressors because they realize they have no adequate way to protect themselves from the devastating consequences of economic and financial warfare, and usher in a new kind of non-military arms race, where nations compete to establish their own regional trading blocs and regimes. Ultimately, Russia’s war in Ukraine will redefine what it means to be a great power and the nature of future conflicts.

Keep focus on China
In turn, Toshihiro Nakayama, professor of American politics and foreign policy at Keio University in Japan, said the Russo-Ukrainian war will change geopolitical perceptions much more than geopolitical reality. While Russia under Putin looms as a short-term challenge, China will remain the dominant threat in the medium to long term.

For Nakayama, balancing the two would be very important. He points to possible big changes in Russia after Putin – if he does not lead the world to hell before his death – but stresses that the threat from China is radical, since the change in leadership will not lead to big changes, as China is doing. working to reduce the power gap with the United States.

“China will try to act like a more responsible country even as it draws closer to Russia,” he said. “Given the unity of the West and its partners in responding to the Russian war, Beijing may now be learning how dangerous a game it is to try to play. changing the status quo by force will be difficult for China An increasingly justified Sino-Russian partnership is “borderless,” as Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping described it shortly before the invasion.
China can claim that it is not an outlaw like Russia while redoubling its efforts to create a sphere of influence through non-military coercion, as it does in fact. In Washington, we can see resistance from those who prefer to talk with Beijing on the grounds that China is behaving more responsibly than Russia.

The United States does not have the operational capacity or sustained interest in a full long-term engagement with the Ukraine and China issues, but geopolitical reality requires Washington to engage with both. If this is the case, US allies and partners on both the European and Indo-Pacific fronts will have no choice but to engage in further activism.

While the United States has emphasized that it will not interfere directly in Ukraine, where there is a clear line between NATO members and non-members, Nakayama argued that this logic cannot be directly applied to Asia, there is no doubt that the way What We Perceive America’s credibility will be greatly affected by how we, Washington, deal with the Ukraine crisis.

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